Gambling 254 Predictions
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- UFC 254 Main Card Picks: Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Justin Gaethje Predictions, Preview, Betting Odds, DraftKings MMA DFS Picks Timothy Finnegan breaks down the UFC 254 main event fight between Khabib Nurmagomedov and Justin Gaethje, providing a prediction along with bets to consider on DraftKings Sportsbook and a DraftKings DFS play.
- Bellator 254 is on tap Thursday, with the headline bout between two undefeated fighters — Ilimea-Lei Macfarlane (11-0-0) vs. Juliana Velasquez (10-0-0). Velasquez fight at Bellator 254 for the flyweight world title. The undercard starts off at 7:30 p.m. ET with the main card kicking.
This week the Main Event at UFC 254 will feature a Lightweight title fight. There are some huge favorites among this event, so looking for a parlay could be the best way to find the most value.
Here is our favorite four-fight parlay that pays at odds of +528. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC 254 predictions for the full 12-fight card.
Khabib Nurmagomedov Money Line (-340)
Khabib Nurmagomedov comes into this fight with a perfect record of 28-0. He is 10-0 in the UFC and last won in September of 2019. His striking might not be as prolific as Gaethje’s, but he still is averaging 4.11 strikes per minute. He also only absorbs 1.65 strikes per minute, so his striking defense continues to be world class. Obviously, Nurmagomedov is going to be looking for a takedown in this fight. He is averaging 5.35 takedowns per every 15 minutes and in turn has 10 submission victories in his career.
Justin Gaethje is a pure striker, averaging 7.74 strikes per minute and landing them at 59% accuracy. Though he absorbs 8.37 strikes per minute, so he needs to be careful with how aggressive he wants to be. Gaethje is not going to look for the takedown, but he must defend them perfectly in this fight. His takedown accuracy is 80%, but if he goes to the ground just once, that could be the end.
I do not see any way I can back Gaethje in this spot. His striking may be great, but Nurmagomedov’s balanced fighting style is on another level. Nurmagomedov could easily finish this fight inside the distance, or he could be content with pounding Gaethje for five rounds and reclaiming his belt.
Alexander Volkov Money Line (-178)
Both guys are looking to bounce back from recent losses where they were dominated. Alexander Volkov lost to Curtis Blaydes back in June and Walt Harris lost to Alistair Overeem back in May. Volkov looks to be a better striker than Harris, averaging 4.31 strikes per minute. His accuracy is better, sitting at 58% and he is absorbing less strikes, just 2.53 per minute. Volkov does not tend to grapple very much, but he does land takedowns with an accuracy of 70%.
Harris is exclusively a striker, but only lands 2.97 strikes per minute. What is worse is that he has a striking accuracy of 39%. He has a decent striking defense, absorbing 3.18 strikes per minute. Harris has very little grappling ability, but he does defend takedowns 73% of the time.
Volkov is clearly the more balanced fighter here and I do not see him losing this fight. Harris did not look good against Overeem, so I am going to back Volkov to win.
Da Un Jung Money Line (-350)
Da Un Jung coming off a rather easy win against Mike Rodriguez, a fight he won by TKO back in December of 2019. Jung looks to be an elite striker, averaging 6.59 strikes per minute. This also means that he is absorbing an average of 7.05 strikes per minute. The good news is that he has never been knocked out and should be able to handle himself here as well.
The biggest concern for Sam Alvey is the fact that he has lost four fights in a row, having not won since 2018. His striking is average, seeing that he lands 3.11 strikes per minute an absorbs 3.22 strikes. Alvey will likely not attempt any takedown, but even if he does, he only lands them 16% of the time.
This is a fight that Jung is going to dominate. Alvey is getting up there in age and looks like he has taken a step back. Because of that, I will back Jung to win this fight easily.
Nathaniel Wood Money Line (+142)
Casey Kenney is coming off a win against Heili Alateng by unanimous decision. This was just a few weeks ago, so hopefully he will be ready. Kenney has the ability to stand up and fight, averaging 4.25 strikes per minute at an accuracy of 42%. He has never been knocked out in his career and is absorbing 3.27 strikes. We know he has the ability to fight on the ground as well, winning by submission now five times in his career.
Nathaniel Wood’s last fight came against John Castaneda back in July of this year, a win by unanimous decision. Wood is an excellent striker, averaging 5.52 strikes per minute. He is absorbing 3.30 strikes, so his striking defense is very similar to that of his opponent. Wood is also a very well-balanced fighter, averaging 1.65 takedowns per every 15 minutes. He is landing his takedowns at 60% accuracy and defending them at 83%.
Wood is a prolific finisher, winning nine fights by TKO/KO and five fights by submission. Because Wood is a more balanced fighter and has better grappling, I am going to take the dog here.
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Last updated: Sat 24th October 2020The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to Fight Island for the final show of their second trip to Abu Dhabi this year, and it’s a special one for the UFC 254 pay-per-view. UFC Odds are now available, read on for our complete betting guide taking the first look at Khabib Nurmagomedov versus Justin Gaethje, including updated odds and our free expert betting predictions.
Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Justin Gaethje
UFC Lightweight Championship Bout
UFC 254 takes place on Saturday, October 24, 2020 – 11:00 PM EDT live from the Flash Forum
Khabib Nurmagomedov (28-0)
Not much introduction is needed for 'The Eagle', undefeated 11-0 (UFC) lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov has dominated the opposition since his arrival to the big stage. The Dagestani native has yet to taste defeat in his professional MMA career, just two fights away from the big 30-0, will Justin Gaethje become the twenty-ninth victim?
Before his arrival to the UFC, Khabib's martial arts background grew strong in his native country of Russia. A high-level sambo wrestler in Khabib has taken the term 'ground and pound' to whole new levels, leaving his opponents unable to get back to their feet from his relentless grappling style.
Khabib has not only won all of his professional fights, but the man has barely lost a-round. He'll face an experienced wrestler in Justin Gaethje which offers an exciting unknown to the battle at hand, but it's complicated to ignore the prevailing UFC lightweight champion, Khabib Nurmagomedov.
Gambling 254 Predictions 2019
Khabib Nurmagomedov Best Available Odds at -300 with Intertops
Justin Gaethje (22-2)
Riding a four-fight win streak, three of those four bouts ending in a first-round knockout, it's no surprise that Justin Gaetjhe is next-in-line for the prestigious UFC lightweight title. Some fighters are tactical, others are reckless, but Justin Gaethje is pure entertainment every time he steps into the octagon.
The NCAA Div I All-American has often neglected his offensive wrestling because he's managed to build a career of his knockout power. An incredible 19 of Gaethje's 24 professional fights have ended by knockout or technical stoppage by the referee, and 9 of them ended inside the first round.
The question that is on everybody's mind will Gaethje's wrestling accolades matchup against the grappling offence that Khabib has relied on? Well, we are one week away from finding out.
Justin Gaethje Best Available Odds at +260 with Bovada
UFC 254: Khabib vs Gaethje Early Prediction
How Can Khabib Win?
Ok, I'm not going to pretend like Khabib will have any other gameplan than wrestle his way to victory. Yes, we have witnessed moments of Khabib landing some powerful strikes on the feet, but the majority of his striking offense is a lead-up into his grappling onslaught.
Gaethje has the wrestling background, but we have yet to see him utilize this skillset or even compete against a high-level wrestler, Khabib shouldn't find any trouble grinding Gaethje until the eventual takedown, takes place.
How Can Gaethje Win?
One glance at the knockout record of Gaethje and the answer is revealed, the best opportune moment for Gaethje to walk-out as the new lightweight champion would stem from his knockout threat. Should Gaethje find a chance to connect flush with the Dagestani's jaw, he could shock the world and make history.
Nurmagomedov vs. Gaethje Betting Odds Advice
The top sportsbooks' current odds are entirely expected, -350 on Khabib has been brought down to -300 because of a handful of Gaethje believers – but don't be mistaken, I believe the bookmaker is on the right side, and Khabib will dominate his way to another impressive win.
Gambling 254 Predictions Against
We haven't seen Khabib in the octagon since the passing of his father. In the name and memory of Abdulmanap Nurmagomedov – Khabib Nurmagomedov is going to dominate Justin Gaethje in a way you have never witnessed before, making Gaethje look like a different fighter than what we are used to. Khabib may even surprise us with a vicious knockout, but with his history and dominant evidential skillset in the world of MMA, there is no reason to doubt 'The Eagle' against Justin Gaethje.
UFC Betting Prediction: Khabib Nurmagomedov to win inside the distance at +105 with BookMaker
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Gambling 254 Predictions For Today
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